Browse live theses from the public API, filter by family or direction, follow the evidence behind every call, and pivot into your saved watchlist when you want a tighter research queue.
Filter by thesis family, direction, regime dependency, or confidence level.
Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick has expressed concerns about recent developments in the private credit market, suggesting a bearish outlook for credit assets.
High confidence
Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick has expressed concerns about 'imported' inflation stemming from the war in Iran, suggesting a bearish outlook for inflation due to geopolitical risks.
High confidence
The claim bundle indicates that fixed-income trading at Bank of America Corp. fell short of analyst estimates, suggesting a bearish outlook for this segment of the bank's trading revenue.
High confidence
The claim bundle indicates that the IMF has downgraded its 2026 global growth projection, which suggests a bearish outlook for global economic growth. This downgrade is further supported by ASML's weaker-than-expected sales forecast in the second quarter, which tempers the improved outlook for the full year.
High confidence
The claim bundle discusses the impact of risk-off sentiment and increased dollar demand on capital flows, as highlighted by HSBC Bank CEO Michael Roberts. This development is seen as bearish for capital flows, as it reflects a shift towards safer assets and a stronger dollar.
High confidence
The claim bundle warns that an extended Iran war could have negative implications for the global economy. US banks and the IMF have expressed concerns about the potential downturn if the war in Iran lasts, highlighting the bearish outlook for the global economy.
High confidence
The claim bundle indicates a bearish outlook for economic growth in both Europe and Germany, suggesting potential headwinds for the broader European economy.
High confidence
The claim bundle suggests that ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly those related to the Middle East, could lead to a decrease in global oil demand and potentially impact oil prices. The International Energy Agency has cut its forecasts for global oil demand this year, warning that both supply and demand will be hurt by conflict in the Middle East. Additionally, jet fuel shortages could be incoming if the Strait of Hormuz doesn't reopen in the next few weeks.
High confidence