Browse live theses from the public API, filter by family or direction, follow the evidence behind every call, and pivot into your saved watchlist when you want a tighter research queue.
Filter by thesis family, direction, regime dependency, or confidence level.
The claim bundle indicates that disruptions to the Gulf region, particularly in the Straits of Hormuz, could lead to significant energy supply chain disruptions. This, combined with high jet fuel prices and missing oil inventory, could drive oil prices higher and impact global markets.
High confidence
The possibility of a US ground war in Iran is affecting market sentiment, with investors cautious due to President Trump's continued hopes for peace and the potential for a market rally if a diplomatic solution is found. However, the notion that continuing conflict would be too damaging to the global economy and markets is keeping hopes for peace alive. Michael Every, Global Strategist at Rabobank, is skeptical that economic considerations will prevent the US from pursuing a ground war in Iran, believing that Trump is using negotiations and peace proposals to buy time to get troops in place for a military action in Hormuz.
High confidence
The claim bundle indicates that both Iran and its adversaries are breaching the two-week ceasefire, signaling escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This instability is likely to have bearish implications for regional stability and economic conditions.
High confidence
The claim bundle indicates that ongoing conflict in the Middle East, including Israeli strikes in Lebanon, poses a significant risk to regional stability and could derail ceasefire efforts. This geopolitical instability is likely to have bearish implications for economic conditions and asset markets.
High confidence
The claim bundle suggests that the software sector is undergoing a structural regime shift driven by hyper-competition, AI-driven bespoke solutions, and the rise of Chinese open-source models. This competition is leading to a deflationary spiral, eroding long-duration asset values and causing significant dispersion in stock performance. The sector's challenges are further exacerbated by legal risks and uncertain revenue projections, as evidenced by Oracle's situation. The credit market is showing early signs of stress, with widening spreads and systemic risks emerging from private equity and software OAS spreads.
High confidence
The claim bundle indicates a bearish market sentiment driven by significant drawdowns in the SAS sector, unprecedented rate of change in the IGV-to-NDX, and the worst 7-day rate of change in growth versus value in 25 years. These factors suggest a challenging market environment with sector rotation and valuation pressures.
High confidence
The claim bundle suggests that last year's crypto selloffs were primarily driven by liquidity leaving the system, rather than fundamental issues. As capital rotated into gold and risk tightened, Bitcoin and high-duration assets were the first to be affected. This led to stop losses and cascading liquidations across the market.
High confidence
The software sector is underperforming year-to-date, down 12%, primarily due to data center bottlenecks that prevent massive remaining performance obligations from converting to revenue. This underperformance contrasts with the leading market performance of energy, capital goods, and materials sectors.
High confidence