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The attack on the world's largest LNG plant in Qatar by Iran has caused significant damage, leading to higher gas, electricity, and food prices globally. This will impact inflation and consumption, with higher energy costs affecting fertilizers and thus food prices.
High confidence
The Fed's updated projections show more optimism for GDP growth, but higher productivity and long-run GDP growth push up the 'neutral' interest rate r*, weakening the case for rate cuts. The FOMC expects a 2.7% headline increase in inflation for 2026, which is too high to justify rate cuts. The average expectation for the fed funds rate at the end of 2026 did not change, signaling only one cut this year and one next year. The possibility of the next move being a hike came up in discussions among FOMC members. The release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) report for February delivered another blow to hopes of softer inflation.
High confidence
The claim bundle suggests that the rise of AI and crypto is leading to a dissolution of traditional occupational identity, institutional belonging, and geographic community. Nation-state institutions are failing to provide economic and social identity, leading individuals to seek community and identity within decentralized games and crypto ecosystems. This shift is driven by the erosion of community identity by AI and the creation of parallel commercial infrastructure by AI agents operating on stablecoin rails.
High confidence
The claim bundle indicates that both consumer inflation expectations and actual inflation readings are expected to increase. The New York Fed report is expected to show an increase in consumer inflation expectations from 3.0% to 3.7%. Additionally, the US CPI inflation read for March is forecast to show an acceleration from 2.4% year-on-year to 3.4%, and from 0.3% month-on-month to 1.0%. The core index (ex-food and energy) of the US CPI is also expected to show an acceleration in March from 0.2% month-on-month to 0.3%, and from 2.5% year-on-year to 2.7%.
High confidence
The pause in Iran strikes by Trump led to a crash in oil prices, reflecting the sensitivity of oil markets to geopolitical events.
High confidence
The claim bundle argues that ongoing conflict in the Middle East is disrupting critical energy infrastructure and threatening the Strait of Hormuz, which is putting strain on global energy markets. The scarcity of oil is currently pricing the market, and it will take years before energy infrastructure recovers to its previous state due to the ongoing conflict.
High confidence
The claim bundle suggests that German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's comments about the US being humiliated by Iranian leaders could negatively impact transatlantic relations. This development could have broader implications for geopolitical stability and market sentiment.
High confidence
The claim bundle suggests that the recent jump in Germany's March CPI could signal a potential revival of inflation, which may prompt global central banks to reconsider their rate-cut strategies. This could have bearish implications for rate-sensitive assets.
High confidence