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The claim bundle suggests that the Federal Reserve's new monetary policy regime, characterized by ongoing balance sheet expansion and a revised reaction function, aligns with a decisively bullish medium-term backdrop for risk assets. This is supported by five of six key macro cycles acting as tailwinds for risk assets and the potential for explosive upside in 2026.
High confidence
The claim bundle suggests that the current rally in crypto and tech stocks is driven by a turn higher in the liquidity cycle. This is evidenced by the correlation between Bitcoin's performance and the ISM, a barometer for the business cycle, and the upward trajectory of global liquidity cycle models well into 2024. Additionally, the push higher in Ethereum is also attributed to the liquidity cycle, with Fed Net Liquidity expected to continue higher in 2024. The current macro environment is favorable for long duration equity plays and liquidity sensitive assets like crypto.
High confidence
The claim bundle suggests that the convergence of tokenization, stablecoins, and AI agents will lead to a fundamental change in the economic logic that has justified trapped capital for two centuries. This technological convergence is expected to unlock $16 trillion in trapped liquidity, which will become a non-inflationary engine for global GDP growth by increasing the output of existing capital through velocity. The transition from the speed of paperwork to the speed of information is seen as an architectural inevitability.
High confidence
The claim bundle suggests that increased liquidity is funneling into Main Street and parts of the stock market, leading to gains. The US dollar's decline and the MOVE index's decrease contribute to improved global liquidity conditions, which in turn support stock market performance.
High confidence
Easier financial conditions are beginning to favor cyclicals and levered beta over defensives.
High confidence
Easier financial conditions are beginning to favor cyclicals and levered beta over defensives.
High confidence
Easier financial conditions are beginning to favor cyclicals and levered beta over defensives.
High confidence
Easier financial conditions are beginning to favor cyclicals and levered beta over defensives.
High confidence