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The claim bundle indicates that Jerome Powell's term as Federal Reserve Chair is ending, but he will continue to serve as a governor for an unspecified period. This suggests a neutral stance on Fed policy as Powell's influence will persist, despite the change in his official title.
High confidence
The claim bundle indicates that 30-year US Treasury yields are at their highest levels since 2009, driven by inflation expectations and relentless Treasury supply. This suggests a neutral stance on the bond market, as the claims reflect ongoing concerns about inflation and market risk.
High confidence
The claim bundle indicates that inflation remains elevated, and the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting did not result in significant changes. Additionally, the confirmation of a new Chair for the Federal Reserve is pending, which could lead to changes in the Fed's purpose, strategy, and independence under incoming leadership.
High confidence
The claim bundle indicates that the April jobs report has resulted in a stalemate at the Federal Reserve, suggesting that the central bank's policy will remain on hold for the time being. This neutral stance on inflation and rates is driven by the current economic data and the Fed's cautious approach.
High confidence
The claim bundle indicates that the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle is not yet concluded, and Mary Daly is monitoring inflation expectations from consumers and producers. This suggests a neutral stance on inflation and rates as the Fed navigates an uncertain economic environment.
High confidence
The claim bundle indicates that the Federal Reserve's policy remains cautious, with the rate-setting committee holding rates steady and Mary Daly monitoring inflation expectations from consumers and producers. This suggests a neutral stance on inflation and rates as the Fed navigates an uncertain economic environment.
High confidence
The claim bundle indicates that the Bank of England and European Central Bank are considering hiking interest rates as soon as June to address inflation triggered by the Middle East conflict. This neutral stance on inflation is supported by the claims highlighting the central banks' consideration of rate hikes in response to conflict-driven inflation.
High confidence
The claim bundle suggests that markets are reacting neutrally to the CPI print, which was less hot than expected. However, Cooper Howard expects inflation to continue impacting the market, with crude oil price fluctuations serving as a long-lasting headwind for bonds.
High confidence