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The claim bundle suggests that global liquidity is at a critical inflection point, which could lead to market instability lasting through 2027. This instability is driven by several factors including geopolitical risks, misinterpretation of economic data, and the nature of financial markets as debt refinancing mechanisms. Additionally, financial crises are linked to imbalances between debt and liquidity, and various economic indicators such as oil prices, bond market volatility, and the strength of the dollar can significantly impact global liquidity.
High confidence
The claim bundle suggests that last year's crypto selloffs were primarily driven by liquidity leaving the system, rather than fundamental issues. As capital rotated into gold and risk tightened, Bitcoin and high-duration assets were the first to be affected. This led to stop losses and cascading liquidations across the market.
High confidence
The claim bundle suggests that the current rally in crypto and tech stocks is driven by a turn higher in the liquidity cycle. This is evidenced by the correlation between Bitcoin's performance and the ISM, a barometer for the business cycle, and the upward trajectory of global liquidity cycle models well into 2024. Additionally, the push higher in Ethereum is also attributed to the liquidity cycle, with Fed Net Liquidity expected to continue higher in 2024. The current macro environment is favorable for long duration equity plays and liquidity sensitive assets like crypto.
High confidence
The claim bundle suggests that the convergence of tokenization, stablecoins, and AI agents will lead to a fundamental change in the economic logic that has justified trapped capital for two centuries. This technological convergence is expected to unlock $16 trillion in trapped liquidity, which will become a non-inflationary engine for global GDP growth by increasing the output of existing capital through velocity. The transition from the speed of paperwork to the speed of information is seen as an architectural inevitability.
High confidence
The claim bundle indicates that the transition from capital to labor, similar to China's economic model, may create a difficult environment for traditional financial assets. This transition could lead to mispricing of risks and a disconnect between market pricing and actual investment flows.
High confidence
The claim bundle suggests that increased liquidity is funneling into Main Street and parts of the stock market, leading to gains. The US dollar's decline and the MOVE index's decrease contribute to improved global liquidity conditions, which in turn support stock market performance.
High confidence
The claim bundle suggests that escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, are leading to disruptions in energy flows and capital recycling, which in turn are tightening financial conditions and causing a global liquidity crisis. This crisis is expected to persist and potentially lead to negative revisions in growth and earnings forecasts.
High confidence
Easier financial conditions are beginning to favor cyclicals and levered beta over defensives.
High confidence