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The claim bundle indicates that 2026 is characterized by deleveraging and credit stress, which are spreading from private markets into AI infrastructure and data center financing. This environment is further complicated by geopolitical risks and inflation pressures, as evidenced by oil prices and Strait of Hormuz risk. The turbulence model is signaling potential market drawdowns, and financials are showing bearish technical indicators. These factors collectively suggest a challenging macroeconomic environment.
High confidence
The claim bundle suggests that energy and materials sectors are expected to benefit from the AI infrastructure cycle, potentially overtaking software in market cap. This is driven by the increasing demand for AI infrastructure, which requires significant energy and material inputs. Additionally, certain IT services, consulting firms, cybersecurity, and AI adoption players like Palantir are favored in portfolios.
High confidence
The claim bundle indicates that the structural thesis of AI capex driving a trillion-dollar-plus boom remains intact. However, the alpha is shifting towards hardware, commodities, energy, and materials. This suggests a bullish outlook for these sectors as they benefit from the ongoing AI-driven investment.
High confidence
The claim bundle suggests that inflation is likely to increase to 4-6% as the six-month rate of change in crude oil prices directly impacts the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This indicates a bearish outlook for inflation, which could have implications for interest rates and overall economic stability.
High confidence
The claim bundle indicates that tech stocks and crypto have been the best asset allocation picks year-to-date. This is supported by the breakout patterns observed in the Nasdaq and semiconductors, as well as the potential for Apple to retest highs and Amazon to experience a key breakout. These patterns suggest a bullish outlook for tech stocks and crypto.
High confidence
The claim bundle suggests that the current rally in crypto and tech stocks is driven by a turn higher in the liquidity cycle. This is evidenced by the correlation between Bitcoin's performance and the ISM, a barometer for the business cycle, and the upward trajectory of global liquidity cycle models well into 2024. Additionally, the push higher in Ethereum is also attributed to the liquidity cycle, with Fed Net Liquidity expected to continue higher in 2024. The current macro environment is favorable for long duration equity plays and liquidity sensitive assets like crypto.
High confidence
The claim bundle posits that Bitcoin, with its abstract nature and lack of traditional valuation framework, persists as a companion to the uncertainty introduced by AI. Bitcoin absorbs uncertainty, existing as a neutral system in a world where trust, measurement, and control are increasingly fragile due to AI-driven change. Investors may recognize Bitcoin's role in this context around 2026, questioning whether they were using the wrong lens to evaluate it earlier.
High confidence
The claim bundle suggests that the development of next-generation nuclear power plants, backed by influential figures like Bill Gates, will play a crucial role in meeting the energy demands of the AI revolution. This is evidenced by the planned construction of a new nuclear plant by TerraPower and the investments in fusion power by AI industry leaders.
High confidence