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The claim bundle suggests that the convergence of tokenization, stablecoins, and AI agents will lead to a fundamental change in the economic logic that has justified trapped capital for two centuries. This technological convergence is expected to unlock $16 trillion in trapped liquidity, which will become a non-inflationary engine for global GDP growth by increasing the output of existing capital through velocity. The transition from the speed of paperwork to the speed of information is seen as an architectural inevitability.
High confidence
The claim bundle suggests that global central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, are expected to maintain or hike interest rates due to persistent inflation pressures. This is evidenced by the pricing in of rate hikes across multiple countries and the expectation of higher inflation readings, such as the Producer Price Index (PPI) and core PPI. The Bank of England is also expected to pivot from a priced-in cut to a hold due to the impact of oil prices on inflation.
High confidence
The claim bundle indicates that upcoming reports on US jobs and global inflation, along with specific US economic indicators such as retail sales, ISM manufacturing PMI, and BLS payrolls, are expected to show positive trends. This suggests continued growth in the US economy.
High confidence
The Fed's updated projections show more optimism for GDP growth, but higher productivity and long-run GDP growth push up the 'neutral' interest rate r*, weakening the case for rate cuts. The FOMC expects a 2.7% headline increase in inflation for 2026, which is too high to justify rate cuts. The average expectation for the fed funds rate at the end of 2026 did not change, signaling only one cut this year and one next year. The possibility of the next move being a hike came up in discussions among FOMC members. The release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) report for February delivered another blow to hopes of softer inflation.
High confidence
The attack on the world's largest LNG plant in Qatar by Iran has caused significant damage, leading to higher gas, electricity, and food prices globally. This will impact inflation and consumption, with higher energy costs affecting fertilizers and thus food prices.
High confidence
The claim bundle suggests that the NYSE's partnership with Securitize to create a tokenized securities platform, while generating hype, is a logical and expected development that is unlikely to significantly move the market.
High confidence
The claim bundle suggests that the rise of AI and crypto is leading to a dissolution of traditional occupational identity, institutional belonging, and geographic community. Nation-state institutions are failing to provide economic and social identity, leading individuals to seek community and identity within decentralized games and crypto ecosystems. This shift is driven by the erosion of community identity by AI and the creation of parallel commercial infrastructure by AI agents operating on stablecoin rails.
High confidence
The claim bundle indicates that both consumer inflation expectations and actual inflation readings are expected to increase. The New York Fed report is expected to show an increase in consumer inflation expectations from 3.0% to 3.7%. Additionally, the US CPI inflation read for March is forecast to show an acceleration from 2.4% year-on-year to 3.4%, and from 0.3% month-on-month to 1.0%. The core index (ex-food and energy) of the US CPI is also expected to show an acceleration in March from 0.2% month-on-month to 0.3%, and from 2.5% year-on-year to 2.7%.
High confidence