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The clash between the US and Iran has led to a decline in the record stock rally and an increase in oil prices. Markets are currently pricing the odds of a deal rather than war, indicating a cautious outlook.
High confidence
The claim bundle suggests that productivity growth, driven in part by AI diffusion, continues to support a bullish medium-term outlook for risk assets. Investors should focus on capital appreciation despite potential near-term volatility and inflation headwinds.
High confidence
The claim bundle indicates that the US is awaiting Iran's response to a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war. Additionally, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait are lifting restrictions on US military access to bases. This suggests a neutral geopolitical stance as the situation remains in a state of negotiation and potential military posturing.
High confidence
The claim bundle indicates that the US is awaiting Iran's response to a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war. Tensions remain high in the Persian Gulf and Lebanon, and Iran's leaders have not yet indicated whether they will accept the deal. Additionally, Iran has shown little sign of yielding on their nuclear program, which is a top US demand. This suggests a neutral geopolitical outlook as negotiations continue and tensions persist.
High confidence
The claim bundle suggests that the ongoing war with Iran and a lasting inflation shock are negatively impacting markets. This bearish outlook is driven by the dual pressures of geopolitical risk and persistent inflation.
High confidence
The claim bundle indicates that the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle is not yet concluded, and Mary Daly is monitoring inflation expectations from consumers and producers. This suggests a neutral stance on inflation and rates as the Fed navigates an uncertain economic environment.
High confidence
The claim bundle suggests that the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, driven by a US proposal to end the war, could lead to a decrease in oil prices. This is based on the observed volatility in oil prices and the expectation that Iran's response to the proposal could influence the global energy market.
High confidence
The claim bundle highlights the significant size and complexity of the global ETFs industry, noting both opportunities and risks associated with the trillions of dollars involved. It also points out the role of ETFs as building blocks for portfolios, the easing of listing processes, and the ongoing adjustments in ETF fees. This suggests a neutral stance on the ETFs sector, acknowledging the dynamic nature of the industry.
High confidence