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The claim bundle suggests that growth-friendly policies and a weaker U.S. dollar are expected to support risk assets, including equities and currencies, by increasing global liquidity and reaccelerating the U-shaped U.S. economy.
High confidence
The claim bundle suggests that investors who systematically block out negative news and stay positioned for growth are likely to outperform, as the U-shaped U.S. economy is expected to reaccelerate in 2026 due to growth-friendly policies.
High confidence
The claim bundle indicates a growing geopolitically driven supply-demand imbalance in the Treasury Bond Market. With foreign participation shrinking and private investors absorbing more supply, the Fed is increasingly the only institution capable of stabilizing the market, making some erosion of independence structurally inevitable over time.
High confidence
The claim bundle suggests that rising volatility, concerns over Fed independence, and geopolitical stress are reshaping market structure. Despite these challenges, the medium-term outlook remains constructive due to a structural uptrend in productivity growth.
High confidence
The claim bundle suggests that the Federal Reserve's new monetary policy regime, characterized by ongoing balance sheet expansion and a revised reaction function, aligns with a decisively bullish medium-term backdrop for risk assets. This is supported by five of six key macro cycles acting as tailwinds for risk assets and the potential for explosive upside in 2026.
High confidence
The claim bundle indicates that Rebecca Patterson warns that investors may be underestimating geopolitical risks. This suggests a bearish stance on the impact of these risks on the market, as the claims highlight the potential negative impact of geopolitical risks on market sentiment.
High confidence
The claim bundle indicates that earnings from five of the Magnificent 7 stocks, worth nearly $16 trillion, are set to report earnings this week, which could significantly impact the AI trade. This suggests a neutral stance on the impact of these earnings on the market, as the claims do not indicate a clear bullish or bearish direction, but rather highlight the importance of these earnings in the current market context.
High confidence
The claim bundle suggests that the heightened security risk following the shooting at the White House Correspondents' dinner and the current low ebb in UK-US relations could negatively impact King Charles' state visit this week. However, President Trump's positive stance towards King Charles and his suggestion that the visit may be an opportunity to mend relations introduces a neutral element to the situation.
High confidence